Mar 24, 2007

Probability and Statistics - Advanced Pot Odds Calculations

We have just learned how to calculate the pot odds in order to decide whether to call a bet, but sometimes you must consider other factors. For example:
Implied odds – if the player on your right bets and has more money in his stack and you think that if you get your winning card he will pay you after the river, then your odds get a little better. If there are more players behind you and you think that some of them will pay but not raise, your odds are better than the regular calculation and you should take that into account.

For example: you hold 5c4c and the table is Ac, Kh, 7h, 3d. The pot is $125. Your opponent bets $25 and you know that if you get your card, he will pay you another $25 on the river. In this case you have a chance to win $175 ($125 + $25 bet now + $25 call after the river) by paying $25 which means your odds are 1 to 8 or 12.5%. You have 8 outs since any 6 or 2 will give you a straight. By Phil Gordon's rule of 2 you have 16%, therefore you should call.

General principles – if you are unsure that once you get your card you’ll have the winning hand (a King high flush for example), and there is a chance that another player is drawing for the nut flush, you should be very careful even if your pot odds seem good.
On the other hand If there is a reasonable chance that the player you’re up against is bluffing, then your pot odds are bigger than they seem because you have a chance to win the pot with a marginal hand or bluff him out of the pot on the river.

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Alexa

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